Troy Balderson enters a campaign rally at Olentangy Orange High School. (Paul Becker via Flickr)  

Shortly after the special election results from Ohio’s 12th Congressional District came in on August 7, President Trump had already taken to Twitter to congratulate Republican Troy Balderson on his “BIG” win. 

In reality, Balderson’s victory was anything but.

In 2016, Rep. Pat Tiberi carried the 12th district by a whopping 37 points, and Trump bested Clinton there by 11. When all was said and done, Balderson defeated Democrat Danny O’Connor by fewer than 1,000 votes.

To his credit, Trump was correct about one thing in his tweet. Were it not for his surprise appearance on the Saturday night before voting, Balderson, who was tanking in early voting at 36 to 64, might not have won at all.

In fact, the numbers suggest that nearly 80% of all Democratic voters in the 12th District flocked to the polls for O’Connor, whereas that statistic for Balderson’s Republicans barely cleared 40.

So despite what the President touted on Twitter, the reality is that a Trump-style candidate in a crimson-red district that Trump easily carried—in a critical swing state—and in an election that Republicans poured extensive resources into, almost lost.

If Ohio’s 12th Congressional District indicates the nation’s political trends in any way, the Trump (and Balderson) train might very well be headed for a brick wall in November’s midterms.