Last spring the world watched in amazement as the dictatorships of the Middle East were chased by a tidal wave of hope, the likes of which the world has never seen. As the spring buds around campus gave way to the luscious greens of summer the optimism seemed to become a reality, as freedom fighters became the victors, and the persecutions of the past would now end. As the leaves have faded, however, the world has grown cynical and braces for a hard winter ahead.

At this moment, the future of the Middle East is remarkably unclear. Syria is still under the control of a tyrant. Egypt, the big story of the spring, seems to be going back down the path of a dictatorial government. Pakistan is highly volatile and its relationship with the United States is as bad as it has been. If Iran fell, it may be a blessing, as the government is very anti-American and anti-Semitic. Saudi Arabia remains strong, and oil rich. Iraq, in a matter of months, will have no U.S. presence at all, another source of potential volatility in the region. In Libya, NATO supported rebels have all but won the war and killed Qadaffi, but the question remains to whether or not they will be any better than the previous regime. The list, unfortunately, goes on, and the relationships between these countries and within the countries themselves are far too complicated to do justice by differentiating between Shiite and Sunni, oil producing and not.

Indeed there is much reason to be cynical, long past the euphoria of new revolution. Our emotions have gone from the certainty of justice in the upheaval of dictators to the completely uncertain of a future that could be worse than the past. That is the issue at hand. We simply do not know and cannot predict what is yet to come. We hope with all our heart for a future of justice and peace, but brace ourselves for what truly may be the Arab fall.

Written by Harry Wexner’13